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Domains · Warehouse

Automated storage and shuttle systems, read causally.

What drives faults, downtime and throughput across the system. The causal model inside Ceptron reads the system's own history and reports which variables drive which, at what delay and by how much.

The physics hereQueues and travel times. Loads arriving and leaving, lifts and shuttles moving them between aisles and levels, buffers that fill and drain, and the controls that release work.

Why it is hard

Everything in an aisle moves together.

An automated system is one material flow: totes come in through goods-in and lifts, shuttles store and retrieve them on every level, and elevators and pick stations feed them back out. A fault in one place shows up as a queue somewhere else, hours later.

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Order release drives everything

The warehouse system releases work in waves, and faults, queues and throughput all rise and fall with it. Most metrics look related for that reason alone.

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Control rules hide causes

Release rules react to queues, so history can show that more work shortens a queue. It does the opposite. The causal model recognizes the rule and reports the real direction.

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Shared equipment gets blamed

Elevators serve every level, so their faults touch everything and take the blame. The largest cause of lost throughput is often somewhere else.

1
Export the history
Fault logs, mission and transport records, and order releases, as the system already writes them. Nothing is installed on the system.
2
One table per question
The records are turned into a time-series table for the question at hand: one column per device or measure, one row per time step.
3
Read it causally
The causal model reports what drives faults, downtime and throughput, at what delay and by how much, with the misleading links left out.
Built for the traps

Twenty traps between the fault log and the real cause.

Each trap is a test file with the answer planted first, told the way it shows up in an automated storage system. Click a card for the trap, its impact, what the model did, and the test files.

a relationship that really existsone that looks real and is not
1–8 of 20

The test files are synthetic, with the answers planted in advance. Nothing here is a result on customer data.

The trap

Impact

What the model did

Scope

Test files

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